Tag Archives: cyclone season

Cyclone Yasi – BoM track/threat map

The first BoM track/threat map has been issued by BoM despite it not quite being in our area yet. A Cyclone Watch has been declared for coastal and island communities from Cooktown to Yeppoon. I’ll try and keep this post updated as new information becomes available.

This first image should give you an idea of where it is relative to Australia as a whole:

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

And here’s the first track map posted at 1349:

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

It’s the “big, ugly sister” of Cyclone Anthony, according to QLD Police. Quite an apposite description, I’d say.

Edit 1: 2011-01-31 1700 BoM update:

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Edit 2: 2011-01-31 1735 NOAA MSAT IR image. This baby is big:

NOAA MTSAT IR Colourised Loop

NOAA MTSAT IR Colourised Loop

Edit 3: 2011-01-31 2020. Via the UK Met Office, an image from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin:

CIMSS Satellite Image

CIMSS Satellite Image

Edit 4: 2011-01-31 2305 Updated track map from BoM. The predictive track is now a little further north. Right over us:

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Edit 5: 2011-02-01 0722 Latest track map. It looks like the possible coast crossing point is now further north and closer to Cairns:

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

NASA has a new article about Yasi with a good satellite image.

NASA Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Yasi

NASA Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Edit 6: 2011-02-01 1116 BoM Advice No.5 and track map are out. Predicted track just north of Cairns now:

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Excellent satellite and radar timelapse vid of  Cyclone Yasi.

Edit 7: 2011-02-01 1405 Latest BoM Advice and track map. Looks centred on Cairns now:

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Edit 8: 2011-02-01 1705 The 5pm BoM advice and track map is out. Looks like it’s heading further south again. At this rate it’ll cross right over our heads:

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Edit 9: 2011-02-01 2004 Latest BoM advice and track map (No.8). Direction seems to have stabilised but it is now a Cat 4:

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Edit 10: 2011-02-01 2304 Track map and advice No.9 from BoM. The predicted track seems to have settled but that easily change in the next 23 hours:

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Please note: These maps are only here as a living record of passing cyclones from the viewpoint of an ordinary FNQer. The info presented is out of date as soon as it is posted. If you want the latest information you should always check the BoM Cyclone page.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi track map

The Fijian Met Service has released a predictive track map for Tropical Cyclone Yasi. It could reach here on 2nd February. Not looking good for the north of Queensland:

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Here is the link for the NOAA MTSAT IR Colourised Loop for the southern hemisphere again. And a still for the Flash-impaired:

NOAA MTSAT IR Colourised Loop

NOAA MTSAT IR Colourised Loop

Time to nail a few things down, probably.

Please note: These maps are only here as a living record of passing cyclones from the viewpoint of an ordinary FNQer. The info presented is out of date as soon as it is posted. If you want the latest information you should always check the BoM Cyclone page.

Cyclone Anthony vs Cyclone Yasi

I alluded earlier to Tropical Cyclone Yasi being a bit larger than Tropical Cyclone Anthony. This image from the US Navy will give you some perspective. As always, click to see the full-sized version:

US Navy - Cyclone Anthony vs Cyclone Yasi

US Navy - Cyclone Anthony vs Cyclone Yasi

Image copyright US Navy/public domain. Cyclone names added by me.

Please note: These maps are only here as a living record of passing cyclones from the viewpoint of an ordinary FNQer. The info presented is out of date as soon as it is posted. If you want the latest information you should always check the BoM Cyclone page.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Tropical Cyclone Anthony is a bit of a worry for those directly in its path but if the predictions are correct it won’t be much worse than TC Tasha was on Christmas day.  Tropical Cyclone Yasi is sitting behind Anthony, currently heading this way and is a bit bigger than TC Anthony.

Here is the NOAA MTSAT IR Colourised Loop for the southern hemisphere.

This is a still from the animated colourised loop if you happen to be browsing on a device that doesn’t support Flash (iPhone, iPad, etc)

NOAA MTSAT Infrared Colourised Image Loop

NOAA MTSAT Infrared Colourised Image Loop

And this is the US Navy’s predicted track map for Cyclone Yasi:

Tropical Cyclone Yasi Track Map

Tropical Cyclone Yasi Track Map

I’m hoping they have this wrong.

Edit: From the BoM three day outlook issued at 1547:

Potential Cyclones:
No other significant lows are expected to develop or move into the region on Monday, however Tropical Cyclone Yasi is currently located near Vanuatu and forecast to move west into the Coral Sea on Tuesday. Likelihood of a new tropical cyclone occurring in the Eastern Region on:

Monday: Low
Tuesday: High
Wednesday:High

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% – 20%
Moderate: 20% – 50% High: Over 50%

Please note: These maps are only here as a living record of passing cyclones from the viewpoint of an ordinary FNQer. The info presented is out of date as soon as it is posted. If you want the latest information you should always check the BoM Cyclone page.

Latest Tropical Cyclone Anthony track maps

The good people at BoM are doing a great job with the track predictions:

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

The coast-crossing point is a little further south than first thought but current predictions are also showing that it may well only be Cat 1 when it crosses.

Edit 1: This is the 1644 track map. Heading further south again:

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Edit 2: The 1900 track map shows another shift further south and directly across Bowen:

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Edit 3: The 2200 track map has been released and you can see how close the centre of the eye is to the coast at Bowen:

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Edit 4: 2300 – Cyclone Anthony has crossed the coast at Bowen and is now Category 1 again:

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Edit 5: 0008 track map. The centre is well inland now and should be a low within twelve hours:

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Edit 6: That’s it, TC Anthony is an ex-cyclone and now classed as a tropical low. It would be good if it fizzled out sooner rather than later as south of here doesn’t need any more rain:

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Tropical Cyclone Anthony

Many thanks to BoM for the track map images.

Please note: These maps are only here as a living record of passing cyclones from the viewpoint of an ordinary FNQer. The info presented is out of date as soon as it is posted. If you want the latest information you should always check the BoM Cyclone page.